Farm income is projected to stagnate through 2030, with federal aid and trade uncertainty shaping the future for U.S. farmers ...

Your friend says to you: "I bet you $100 that in 2016 a Democrat will be elected as president of the USA." Would you take such a wager? Why or why not? You might think gambling is wrong. You might ...

For years, the strange phenomenon of precognition–an unwavering “gut feeling” that something will happen in the future–has puzzled scientists. The eerie concept may sound far-fetched, but many studies ...

I had been trawling absent-mindedly through the ABC's internal digital archive in a vague search for inspiration and clicked ...

A fox, a hedgehog and an LLM – it sounds like the beginning of a joke, but this is in fact the introduction to a topic that is consuming the attention of Philip Tetlock, psychology professor, ...

Mathematicians may have a better way to measure agreement across different datasets. Agreement affects reproducibility, meta-analysis, and prediction to fill in missing data points. We need a more ...

Every three months, participants in the Metaculus forecasting cup try to predict the future for a prize pot of about $5,000. Metaculus, a forecasting platform, poses questions of geopolitical ...

It's impossible to predict the future, but humans can't help themselves. From the economy to the presidency to the Super Bowl, educated and intelligent people promise insight yet repeatedly fail by ...